How will conference re-aligment affect the OVC?
Conference expansion is hot topic around the camp fire lately. The Big XI announced in December that they would be reviewing possible expansion in the next 12-18 months. Schools that have been rumored as possible additions are Notre Dame, Missouri, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and probably the most intriguing, Texas. It was
reported yesterday that Texas and the Big Ten had a preliminary discussion about the league adding a team(s).
The Big Ten had said previously that expansion was "a back burner issue" so for it to become a front burner issue so suddenly suggests to me that the young Big Ten Network is starting to take off and Big Ten officials feel they can make a great argument as to why schools like Notre Dame and Texas should be interested in joining now when both had previously turned down invitations. If the network is the key ingredient in all of this, than we need to look at viewership numbers. It's been long assumed that if the Big Ten expanded, they would look to the New York market, which is why names like Syracuse and Rutgers are thrown around. Obviously, Notre Dame, with a large national following is a no brainer, but they've spurred the Big Ten before, and even though Northwestern brings in more television revenue that Notre Dame (not a typo), I doubt ND is ready to make that move. So what other markets are available? Penn State already controls most of Pennsylvania so the Pitt argument doesn't hold as much water as Missouri who has a fan base in St. Louis and Kansas City. It's also important to remember the academic standards schools in the Big XI are held to. So far all the schools mentioned fit that criteria. The biggest fish out there though is Texas. Texas owns the Dallas metroplex and have large followings in Houston, San Antonio and throughout the country.
There are a number of reasons why or why not adding Texas would be a good fit for the Big Ten. Before we dive into that, lets look at the situation going on in the Pac-10. It was recently announced that they would be looking to add teams as well. The Pac-10 is coming to the end of their network deals and are considering their own network much like the Big Ten. This explains why this would make for the perfect time to look into expansion. Schools that are being discussed on the inter webs include BYU, Utah, Boise State, San Diego State, San Jose State, Texas (they must be popular...) TCU, and Colorado.
Allow me to throw a few of these suggestions away: SDSU & SJS will not be asked to join. The travel expense wouldn't add a lot, but they wouldn't bring in enough additional revenue via television markets to offset the cost of splitting the money 12 ways instead of 10. Boise State has been great at football recently, but aside from that they don't carry enough weight and the Boise Market isn't anything to write home about. That leaves us with BYU, Utah, TCU, Texas and Colorado. Texas declined the Pac-10 to join the Big 12 and they seem to be the envy of both the Big Ten and the Pac 10. Texas is interesting becasue they have been looking into creating their own network as well. Even though Texas brings in more money than any other Big 12 school due to the leagues unequal distribution, they still feel there is more money to be made in exclusive television rights. The Big Ten has an established network that is gaining ground while the Pac-10 is just starting discussions, so one would have to think the Big Ten is in a better position to gain Texas if they choose to realign. TCU, located in Fort Worth, also has some of the DFW market share but its clearly not the size of Texas.
BYU seems like a logical choice if you base the decision off of athletics, enrollment, proximity, etc. but culturally they do not. They do not participate in events on Sundays, and Stanford has said publicly they would not support a faith based university in the league. This dilemma is compounded when you consider BYU's in state rival, the Utah Runnin' Utes, are the most plausible addition to the conference. The Salt Lake City market is a large one and Utah dominates it. They were the original BCS busters when Urban Meyer was still around and have continued to crash the party since his departure. Their basketball program won the national championship in 1944 and more recently, played in the national championship game against Kentucky in 98, so they definitely meet any athletic requirements and are the obvious first choice.
The last time the Pac-10 added members it took Arizona and Arizona State, so many think Utah and BYU are a logical choice but as explained above, I don't see BYU being asked to join, but when Texas joined the Big 12, it was pre-determined that the other Texas schools in the Big12 had to go with them. It was very much a package deal and some figure Utah to the Pac-10 would be a package deal with BYU. Because I don't see BYU being a good fit, the next best, and most likely the best scenario anyway, is taking Colorado and the Denver and Boulder market.
Colorado would be a bit of a jaunt for travel reasons, but if Texas to Penn State is plausible in the Big Ten than Colorado in the Pac-10 isn't that outrageous. Not to mention the travel involved with Hawaii, Louisiana Tech in the WAC and Miami to Boston College in the ACC. States don't necessarily have to be touching for it to be a good fit. The notion of Colorado to the Pac-10 is where things begin to get complicated and impact not only the Pac-10 but the entire college athletics landscape. If the Pac-10 can lure Colorado away for a more lucrative network deal and if the Big Ten can successfully pull Missouri, who has done everything but ask for an invitation, out of the Big 12, than one has to wonder what will become of the Big 12? Also, if the Big 12 is going to be pillaged, and left for dead, why would schools like Texas or Oklahoma even, want to stay when they may have an opportunity to join the Big Ten or Pac 10?
The days of "Super Conferences" are approaching and the landscape of college athletics will be changing. Imagine if the Big Ten added 3 teams or 5 teams? Can you imagine a day where Texas vs Ohio State, Michigan vs Oklahoma, Penn State vs Pitt, Iowa vs Missouri are all considered
conference games? What if the Pac 10 took Utah, Colorado, and other teams from the Big 12? The world is getting smaller folks and these scenarios may seem unlikely at first blush they are a very real possibility.
Let's spin this story locally now. Once the dominoes start falling and everything is mixed up, what will the Ohio Valley Conference look like? Has anyone left? Has anyone joined? You tell us what your ideal conference alignment is.
